Gender Imbalance Troubles China

2010-07-08 18:42 | The Economic Observer
With a severe gender imbalance among young Chinese, China is about to face a lot of problems.According to a Blue Paper on Society released by the China Academy of Social Science, because of the serious gender imbalance among Chinese under the age of 19, ten years later, tens of thousands of male Chinese of marriageable age will have difficulty finding a wife.It is not just the marriage market that will be influenced.In agricultural areas, unmarried young men over 25 years old are everywhere; in rural kindergartens and primary schools, the number of male students is obviously higher than that of females. In the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and southeast Fujian Province where the local economies are dominated by the manufacturing and service industry, because of the severe shortage of women aged between 18 and 25, clothing factories have no choice but to hire young men.

China has entered a society where the number of men far exceeds that of women.

“China’s high sex ratio has lasted for over 20 years, its accumulated effects are becoming obvious,” Yuan Xin, a professor with Nankai University’s population and development research institute, said.

The sex ratio at birth under normal circumstances, should be 103 to 107 male infants for every 100 female babies. Because the death ratio of baby boys is higher than that of girls, the number of boys and girls will be close to equal when they are reach the age of marriage.

But in China, the sex ratio has been increasing since the 1980s. In 1982 when China conducted its third national population census, the number of male births for every 100 females was 108.47; in 1990, it rose to 111; in 2000, it was 119 and in 2005, it jumped to 120.49, 13. The male population at that point was 13 percent higher than that of females.

“In a short period of over 20 years, the gender imbalance has expanded quickly from eastern provinces to western, from rural areas to urban cities. Now it has almost covered the whole country,” Yuan Xin said. In 1982, only 18 provinces had a relatively high sex ratio while in 2005, all provinces, except Tibet, had a high sex ratio and three provinces had a ratio exceeding 130.

The gender imbalance will not only produce a large number of single young men, but also will give rise to a series of social problems.

Based on statistics provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, with the size of the male population aged zero to 19 being 23 million more than that of the female population, in the next ten years, every year there will be 1.2 million more men reaching marriageable age than women, forcing the former to seek wives in less-developed regions or search for younger females. The final result will be that young men in poor areas will be edged out of the marriage market, which, according to Tian Xueyuan who is the deputy director of the China Population Association, will give rise to a black market of “wife selling” and thus threaten social stability.

In recent years, 36,000 women have been sold and sent to Zhejiang Province to marry local men, statistics from the local public security bureau show. Most of these women are from underdeveloped regions like Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Hubei.

In the mountainous area connecting Guangxi Province and Vietnam where the economy is poor, men are forced to marry brides who have illegally entered China from Vietnam.

“The narrowing of the marriage market has produced a large number of single men. What is worse, it is the impoverished who are bearing the consequences,” Tian Xueyuan said.

The gender imbalance will also give a heavy blow to the job market. A textile factory owner, Yuan Xin, who is doing business in Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Shanghai said, said the sex ratio in many textile factories has reached up to four to six males per one female; some factories have even closed due to a lack of female laborers. Yaun Xin said that excess of male laborers would intensify the competition in the job market and make it even more difficult for women to find jobs. Additionally, because of the shortage of females, in some sectors, men would have to take positions which formerly belonged to women, while in some other sectors, men would face more severe competition.

What has caused such an unbalanced sex ratio? The answer is multi-faceted.

One answer is the advanced technology which allows people to know the sex of fetuses when a woman is only four-months pregnant or even less. Male fetuses will kept alive while female fetuses will be aborted.

The technology, called type-B ultrasonic, though prohibited by Chinese laws to be used on pregnant women, is still available in some clinics in Chinese cities, towns and villages, especially in some villages surrounded by cities.

Those clinics, always disguised to be lawful outpatient hospitals or pharmaceutical stores, will inspect the sex of the fetus through a B-type ultrasonic ultrasound and if it is a female, they will ask a doctor, who works for a local hospital and wants to earn extra money, to perform an abortion.

But that is not the complete answer.

“The core of the problem lies in the traditional view which holds that men more important than women,” Tian Xueyuan said.

Though the Chinese government has made it clear that women are equal to men under law, many Chinese parents and families still consider men more important than women and boys better than girls because men are more capable of supporting families and will continue the family line.

According to Yang Juhua, a professor with Renmin University, the unequal social status between male and females is still obvious in Chinese society. Aside from education levels, women are still suffering from disadvantages in many fields. Their wages are still lower than that of men in same-level positions and they are more likely to be refused when competing for university acceptance or job vacancies with male peers with the same qualifications. Additionally, Chinese women play a much weaker role in state affairs than their foreign counterparts. Females only account for one fifth of the total officials in government, party organizations and public agencies,

Edited by Rose Scobie | Original Source People\’s Daily

 

Addiction Treatment

Effective Addiction Treatment

JANE E. BRODY | February 4, 2013 | The New York Time

Countless people addicted to drugs, alcohol or both have managed to get clean and stay clean with the help of organizations like Alcoholics Anonymous or the thousands of residential and outpatient clinics devoted to treating addiction.

But if you have failed one or more times to achieve lasting sobriety after rehab, perhaps after spending tens of thousands of dollars, you’re not alone. And chances are, it’s not your fault.

Of the 23.5 million teenagers and adults addicted to alcohol or drugs, only about 1 in 10 gets treatment, which too often fails to keep them drug-free. Many of these programs fail to use proven methods to deal with the factors that underlie addiction and set off relapse.

According to recent examinations of treatment programs, most are rooted in outdated methods rather than newer approaches shown in scientific studies to be more effective in helping people achieve and maintain addiction-free lives. People typically do more research when shopping for a new car than when seeking treatment for addiction.

A groundbreaking report published last year by the National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse at Columbia University concluded that “the vast majority of people in need of addiction treatment do not receive anything that approximates evidence-based care.” The report added, “Only a small fraction of individuals receive interventions or treatment consistent with scientific knowledge about what works.”

The Columbia report found that most addiction treatment providers are not medical professionals and are not equipped with the knowledge, skills or credentials needed to provide the full range of evidence-based services, including medication and psychosocial therapy. The authors suggested that such insufficient care could be considered “a form of medical malpractice.”

The failings of many treatment programs — and the comprehensive therapies that have been scientifically validated but remain vastly underused — are described in an eye-opening new book, “Inside Rehab,” by Anne M. Fletcher, a science writer whose previous books include the highly acclaimed “Sober for Good.”

“There are exceptions, but of the many thousands of treatment programs out there, most use exactly the same kind of treatment you would have received in 1950, not modern scientific approaches,” A. Thomas McLellan, co-founder of the Treatment Research Institute in Philadelphia, told Ms. Fletcher.

Ms. Fletcher’s book, replete with the experiences of treated addicts, offers myriad suggestions to help patients find addiction treatments with the highest probability of success.

Often, Ms. Fletcher found, low-cost, publicly funded clinics have better-qualified therapists and better outcomes than the high-end residential centers typically used by celebrities like Britney Spears and Lindsay Lohan. Indeed, their revolving-door experiences with treatment helped prompt Ms. Fletcher’s exhaustive exploration in the first place.

In an interview, Ms. Fletcher said she wanted to inform consumers “about science-based practices that should form the basis of addiction treatment” and explode some of the myths surrounding it.

One such myth is the belief that most addicts need to go to a rehab center.

“The truth is that most people recover (1) completely on their own, (2) by attending self-help groups, and/or (3) by seeing a counselor or therapist individually,” she wrote.

Contrary to the 30-day stint typical of inpatient rehab, “people with serious substance abuse disorders commonly require care for months or even years,” she wrote. “The short-term fix mentality partially explains why so many people go back to their old habits.”

Dr. Mark Willenbring, a former director of treatment and recovery research at the National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, said in an interview, “You don’t treat a chronic illness for four weeks and then send the patient to a support group. People with a chronic form of addiction need multimodal treatment that is individualized and offered continuously or intermittently for as long as they need it.”

Dr. Willenbring now practices in St. Paul, where he is creating a clinic called Alltyr “to serve as a model to demonstrate what comprehensive 21st century treatment should look like.”

“While some people are helped by one intensive round of treatment, the majority of addicts continue to need services,” Dr. Willenbring said. He cited the case of a 43-year-old woman “who has been in and out of rehab 42 times” because she never got the full range of medical and support services she needed.

Dr. Willenbring is especially distressed about patients who are treated for opioid addiction, then relapse in part because they are not given maintenance therapy with the drug Suboxone.

“We have some pretty good drugs to help people with addiction problems, but doctors don’t know how to use them,” he said. “The 12-step community doesn’t want to use relapse-prevention medication because they view it as a crutch.”

Before committing to a treatment program, Ms. Fletcher urges prospective clients or their families to do their homework. The first step, she said, is to get an independent assessment of the need for treatment, as well as the kind of treatment needed, by an expert who is not affiliated with the program you are considering.

Check on the credentials of the program’s personnel, who should have “at least a master’s degree,” Ms. Fletcher said. If the therapist is a physician, he or she should be certified by the American Board of Addiction Medicine.

Does the facility’s approach to treatment fit with your beliefs and values? If a 12-step program like A.A. is not right for you, don’t choose it just because it’s the best known approach.

Meet with the therapist who will treat you and ask what your treatment plan will be. “It should be more than movies, lectures or three-hour classes three times a week,” Ms. Fletcher said. “You should be treated by a licensed addiction counselor who will see you one-on-one. Treatment should be individualized. One size does not fit all.”

Find out if you will receive therapy for any underlying condition, like depression, or a social problem that could sabotage recovery. The National Institute on Drug Abuse states in its Principles of Drug Addiction Treatment, “To be effective, treatment must address the individual’s drug abuse and any associated medical, psychological, social, vocational, and legal problems.”

Look for programs using research-validated techniques, like cognitive behavioral therapy, which helps addicts recognize what prompts them to use drugs or alcohol, and learn to redirect their thoughts and reactions away from the abused substance.

Other validated treatment methods include Community Reinforcement and Family Training, or Craft, an approach developed by Robert J. Meyers and described in his book, “Get Your Loved One Sober,” with co-author Brenda L. Wolfe. It helps addicts adopt a lifestyle more rewarding than one filled with drugs and alcohol.

Future Air Travel

In Depth| 7 November 2012 | BBC Future

Radical planes take shape

Steven Ashley – is a freelance science/technology writer and editor. Currently a contributing editor at both Scientific American and SAE Automotive Engineering International magazines, he also contributes frequently to The New York Times, txchnologist.com and ecoimagination.com.

Engineers and designers are giving commercial aircraft a makeover, in a bid to make them faster, greener and more efficient. 

 

Look up into the skies today at a passing aeroplane and the view is not that much different to the one you would have seen 60 years ago. Then and now, most airliners have two wings, a cigar-shaped fuselage and a trio of vertical and horizontal stabilizers at the tail. If it isn’t broke, the mantra has been, why fix it, particularly when your design needs to travel through the air at several hundred miles an hour packed with people.

But that conservative view could soon change. Rising fuel prices, increasingly stringent pollution limits, as well as a surge in demand for air travel, mean plane designers are going back to their drawing boards. And, now, radical new shapes and engine technologies are beginning to emerge, promising the biggest shake-up in air travel since de Haviland introduced the first commercial jet airliner in 1952.

Of course, it would be wrong to say nothing has changed in the last few decades, says Rich Wahls, an aerodynamicist at Nasa’s Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia.  “New model airliners don’t come out every year like cars, but it’s not as if they haven’t been evolving under the skin the whole time. There’s so much more technology in there nowadays.”

Earlier improvements went mostly unnoticed because they focused on building better and quieter turbine engines with higher performance and improved fuel consumption. There have also been huge strides in computer controls and fly-by-wire systems, which make a big difference to the pilot, but not to the passengers. And in recent years, the biggest development has been the use of strong, but lightweight plastics and composite materials rather than metals, reducing the weight of planes and the amount of fuel they need to burn. This has also allowed the development of “radical” new planes like the giant Airbus A380 and the Boeing Dreamliner.

But despite these advances, aviation engineers know there is still much to be done. Take fuel prices, for instance, which have soared in recent years. Despite modern planes being 60% to 70% more efficient than those built 60 years ago, aviation fuel expenditures now account for a quarter of an airlines operating expenses, placing them on a par with labor costs. In 2011, large US air carriers paid half again as much for fuel as what they paid in 2000. Add the fact that global airline travel is expected to grow to 3.3 billion annually by 2014 (up one third from 2009), and it’s clear why engineers are searching for new ways to boost performance.

Shock test

One of the biggest efforts to rethink the airplane is being conducted by Nasa’s Subsonic Fixed-Wing program, a collaboration between the US aerospace agency and industrial partners including Boeing, GE, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Pratt & Whitney, as well as academic institutions such as Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “We’re looking to see if we can develop technologies that can get us yet another 60 to 70% improvement in fuel efficiency,” says Wahls. In addition, the project wants to engineer new designs with a 71-decibel decrease in noise emissions and a four-fifths fall in nitrogen oxide pollutants from current standards. And, if these kinds of goals weren’t already aggressive enough, the team wants any new technology to enter service between 2030 and 2035 – a mere blink of an eye in an industry in which commercial aircraft can have multi-decade life spans.

“We are trying to determine which technologies are worth pursuing; those that might get us anywhere near our goals,” says Wahls’ boss, Ruben Del Rosario, subsonic fixed-wing program manager.

Planes under investigation by Nasa range from the extreme to the slightly more conventional. For example, Boeing’s Sugar Volt is a design that came about as part of the manufacturers Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research (Sugar) project. The design – like many new concepts – is based around the idea of maximizing the plane’s lift. This reduces the amount of power needed to keep the plane in the air, as well as the amount of fuel it must burn.

The Sugar Volt does this by using very long, narrow, flexible wings. They are so long that engineers needed to brace them with under-wing truss support struts, making the aircraft resemble the Piper Cub and other light, high-winged planes. The SugarVolt’s wings are extended in order to increase lift, allowing shorter take-off distances and requiring less power in flight. They are so long, in fact, that the Boeing designers may have to fit them with hinges so that they could fit in existing airports and boarding gates.

Burning up

There are, however, are other ways to improve performance than just making longer wings. A team from MIT in Cambridge, Massachusetts, for example, put forward the D8 for consideration by Nasa. This “double-bubble” aircraft design, features a double-wide fuselage composed of two standard body cylinders melded together side-by-side, as well as low-swept wings that cut drag and weight. The idea of the wider body shape is to increase lift generated by the fuselage, rather than it being mostly dead weight slung between two wings. The extra lift and reduced drag cuts back on the quantity of fuel that the engines must burn. If the jet were built today from standard aluminum alloys it could provide a 50% reduction in fuel use, according to the MIT designers; a low-mass polymer-composite version could give 70% efficiency gains. In addition, because the D8’s turbine engines sit on top of the fuselage in a box-shaped tail, they would cut the amount of engine noise broadcast to the ground.

The D8’s idea for generating greater lift is taken to an extreme in another design called the N3-X hybrid wing-body airplane, which Nasa developed in-house. At first glance, the N3-X looks a lot like a so-called flying wing design, used by planes such as the US Air Force’s B-2 stealth bomber. These comprise a single, thick triangular wing that enclose all of the plane’s contents – cockpit, stores, engines, fuel tanks and flight surfaces. But, unlike the B-2 flying wing, the N3-X hybrid wing-body also features two thin, rather conventional wings attached to the sides of its ultra-wide fuselage.

The primary advantage of the hybrid, or blended, wing-body design is better fuel efficiency, Del Rosario says. Like a flying wing, the hybrid aircraft produces lift with its entire aerodynamic airframe, thus ridding itself of the drag associated with the cylindrical fuselage and the tail surfaces of a conventional plane. As with the D8, the more lift that can be produced overall, the less effort is needed from the engines, which in turn means less fuel must be burned. Fuel efficiency could be raised further by building the airframe from lightweight polymer composite materials instead of metals, Del Rosario says.

Cool running

Engineers are aware, however, that new airframe shapes will only get them part of the way to their goals. To really make a difference, particularly to fuel consumption and engine noise, planes will also need radically new propulsion systems mounted or integrated into the airframe in novel ways. And, like car designers, aircraft manufacturers makers are beginning to explore the possibilities of electric and hybrid engines.

Boeing’s Sugar Volt concept, for example, would use a hybrid-electric propulsion system that combines fuel-burning (turbine) engines, electric motors and electrochemical storage batteries—a propulsion concept not totally unlike that inside a Toyota Prius. The hybrid system would let the operators choose to draw engine power from the turbines or the batteries, whichever provides the most benefit for the specific segment of the flight—takeoff, landing, cruise, and so forth. “You can envision a 737-class airliner using the combination of turbine and electric power for take off and then, depending on the situation, switching over to cruise on one or the other,” says Marty Bradley, principal investigator for subsonic ultra-green aircraft research at Boeing Research and Technology in Bellevue, Washington.

Nasa’s N3-X is also designed around a completely new engine concept, called turboelectric distributed propulsion. It splits the main functions of a standard turbine engine in two – generating power by burning fuel and creating thrust by blowing air rearward with a large fan.

The idea is to use two large turbine engines to drive electric generators that would produce electricity to power 15 electric motor-driven, thrust-producing fans that would be embedded across the top rear of the broad fuselage. Such a configuration could be very efficient, Del Rosario says. The array of small electric propulsion fans at the stern of N3-X enables the designers to cut drag significantly by accelerating the flow of drag-causing air moving over the upper surface of the fuselage, keeping efficiency-sapping air friction at a minimum. Like the D8, the top-mounted propulsor fans would also effectively lower noise emissions because the body would come between them and the ground below.

The airliner concept may have an Achilles’ heel, though. For such a system to reach maximum fuel-efficiency targets, the electronics, generators and motors may need to be built from superconducting (zero-resistance) materials, meaning the jet’s electrics would have to be super-cooled by liquid hydrogen at −253C (−423F) or liquid nitrogen at -196C (321F) to make them work. This cryogenic technology is not yet fully practical and could take decades to prove out. Recent studies indicate, however, that substantial fuel-consumption gains could still be obtained by using existing electrical technology running at ambient temperatures, according to Del Rosario.

If that scheme sounds far out, other manufacturers are looking at developing fully electric systems for the 2050 time-frame. Aircraft engineers and designers at Eads, the parent firm of Airbus, for instance, have proposed a rather extreme concept called the Voltaire. The bulbous, 50-seat fuselage with two, long slender wings and a giant propeller on the tail, make it resemble a submarine. The concept, first put forward in 2011, would use next-generation batteries to power high-efficiency superconducting electric motors that would in turn drive the giant counter-rotating propellers mounted in a cylindrical shroud at the tail. Unlike any of the Nasa concepts, it is designed to be zero-emission.

Sling shot

However, anyone thinking that the electric Voltaire airliner may fly any time soon, needs to think again, says Johannes Stuhlberger, head of the global innovation network, power and flight propulsion at Eads. “The development of electric aircraft not only depends on the speed at which battery technology improves, but also how fast electrical equipment – the motors – get better.” Electric motors would need efficiencies of around 95%, he adds, noting that for any new system to become a reality will require “tremendous improvements in the power-to-mass ratio of the entire propulsion system, while still keeping it affordable.

In the shorter term, engineers at the Airbus group are trying to reduce fuel-consumption emissions by developing novel launch systems, similar to those found on naval aircraft carriers. In one radical concept, a low-slung carriage vehicle with an airliner mounted on its back would accelerate down the tarmac and loft the plane into the air. Such a device would substantially reduce the initial power required for a passenger plane to take off. Airbus envisages the eco-climb system moving into position automatically and assisting airliners to climb steeper and reach cruising altitude faster and from shorter runways.

Of course, all of these developments will undoubtedly lead to changes in the passengers’ in-flight experience. Catapult take-offs will likely mean passengers will be thrust back into their seats more firmly than happens now. Ultra-wide bodied planes will likely mean fewer window per seat for the occupants and their larger seat capacities could also lead to slower passenger-deplaning procedures both at the airport and in emergency landing situations. But there will also be benefits from these new wider spaces, which could, for example, accommodate large communal social spaces for kids more commonly found on cruise ships, whilst quiet electric engines could mean a good night’s sleep for travelers normally disturbed by the drone of turbine engines.

“Are the extra carrots in the new designs worth the extra effort and costs they entail?” asks Nasa’s Wahls. Only time will tell. Many of these concepts are just that: concepts that are destined never to become a reality. However, like concept cars that push what is technologically possible on the road, these craft will probably inform the design of future airliners.

So, when you gaze up at the skies in twenty years time, perhaps the airplane passing by will look different from those you grew up with after all.